Mission Accomplished

Over two years after the Iraq invasion, the looting of the treasury is complete, the social security trust fund is emptied, and in it's place is a $450 Billion dollar budget deficit, equal to half of our total annual military spending, most of which goes into the pockets of the Carlyle Group, the Bechtel Group, Wackenhut, Halliburton, Dick Cheney's company, and Lockheed-Martin, Lynne Cheney's company. This unabated spending is threatening to deflate our economy for the first time since the Great Depression. Meanwhile the Federal government is telling its people, who pony up their hard earned money year after year for the neocon wars, that they have no money for health care, education, transportation, environmental concerns, social services, or retirement security. Add to that mix our two new colonies in the Middle East that are draining American money like two giant under-chlorinated swimming pools in the middle of Hell and you see why the treasury has nothing in it but IOUs and Bush's footprints.

The neocons get what they want and the American, Afghani and Iraqi people are left out in the cold. Anyone who supports the Bush administration is functionally retarded in my book.

Start Bracing for the Coming Bear Market

The perfect recipe for a stock bear market is forming: rising inflation, higher interest rates, record oil prices (tripled since 2002), record consumer and government debt, record trade deficits, a slowing economy, and converging long and short term interest rates.

Inflation is obviously occurring. Healthcare, housing, pharmaceuticals, groceries, etc. have all gone up.

Oil Prices are at record highs and since World War II, all major oil spikes but one have brought on a recession, observes Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. The reason: Each sustained $10 increase in oil prices shaves almost a percentage point off growth. Current forecasts of an increase of 4 percent or more in gross domestic product assume oil at $45. A higher price, Zandi believes, means slower growth, which could lead to lower stock prices.

Consumer debt levels have more than doubled in 5 years to over $11 trillion.

Government debt has increased at a growing rate every year of the Bush presidency. In the last 4 years $2.2 trillion dollars has been added to the national debt and this drags on the market. Deficits matter because the increased government borrowing creates a drag on the economy. It reduces the amount of capital available for private investment and consequently the increased national income that would result from greater investment. The deficits are not going to end any time soon either.

The trade deficit is not closing and it is currently ranging in approximately the $50 to 60 billion per month range. The widening of the trade deficit reflects slow growth in U.S. export markets. Money is leaving the US and going elsewhere and like a dyke that has sprung a leak, disaster is just a matter of time if something is not done.

The Conference Board, the firm which publishes the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators series, said its index has declined 1.9 percent in the year to May. This generally signals a sharp economic slowdown.

Long and short-term interest rates are converging which says the bond folks are anticipating deflation brought on by a bursting of the real estate bubble or a more serious economic slowdown.

Also, according to Economist.com:

"The housing market has played such a big role in propping up America's economy that a sharp slowdown in house prices is likely to have severe consequences. Over the past four years, consumer spending and residential construction have together accounted for 90% of the total growth in GDP. And over two-fifths of all private-sector jobs created since 2001 have been in housing-related sectors, such as construction, real estate and mortgage broking.

One of the best international studies of how house-price busts can hurt economies has been done by the International Monetary Fund. Analyzing house prices in 14 countries during 1970-2001, it identified 20 examples of busts, when real prices fell by almost 30% on average (the fall in nominal prices was smaller). All but one of those housing busts led to a recession, with GDP after three years falling to an average of 8% below its previous growth trend. America was the only country to avoid a boom and bust during that period. This time it looks likely to join the club."

Since December 2000 employment in U.S. manufacturing has fallen 17 percent, but membership in the National Association of Realtors has risen 58 percent. Housing is holding the economy up and we don't have manufacturing to fall back on anymore.

The housing bubble already appears to be busting with two declining months of housing starts in May and June. The bubble will burst and you can see the extreme negative effects it could have on the economy.

A recession and a market decline seem very likely in the coming months. My advice is be VERY careful and stay conservative in what you invest in. Don't get caught in a bear trap and always remember cash is king.

Rove is Going Down For Perjury

Rove has been spouting for TWO years in the press he had nothing to do with the outing of Plame. I'm VERY sure that when rove testified in the grand jury regarding Plame he was asked if he had any involvement. What do you think he said?

The smart money is Rove said no he had no involvement with the incident at all or more likely he said he only talked about it AFTER the Novak column came out on July 14th. Rove has been making the above statements and those similar to these in the press for 2 years. He specifically told the FBI that he talked about PLAME AFTER the Novak column came out on July 14th. Now it's possible he's been telling the press something that was not true for 2 years and came clean with the grand jury but does anyone believe that after 2 years of lying Rove suddenly told the truth to the grand jury and admitted outing Plame on purpose or by accident? Not that any of that matters because he lied to the FBI and that is a criminal offense.

Once again, the Novak column came out on July 14th. Rove outed Plame as CIA to Cooper on July 11th. Unless Rove has a time machine he almost undoubtedly committed perjury. He lied to the press, he lied to the grand jury, he lied to the FBI, and he lied to the American people. Also, Rove either lied to Dubya or Dubya knew the truth and has been lying to the American people for 2 years to cover it up. Also keep in mind Rove at this time was an adviser to the president and Rove had no reason to know who Plame was, except as part of a public relations attack against her husband. It was a classic case of punishing the messenger for delivering unwanted news.

Rove is going down, now the question is who else is going with him?

Bush is Either a Liar or a Fool

Invasion of Iraq as we have all seen was completely unnecessary. There were no WMDs and there was no threat to the US or its allies.

Now you must ask yourself was the Bush Administration lying or unbelievably incompetent? Do you believe Bush is an EVIL liar who took us into an unnecessary war or an incompetent fool that got tricked into taking this country into an unnecessary war? It must be one or the other. In either case getting rid of the whole lot ASAP would be good for the country.

Dubya Has the TALKING Tough Part Down

"We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts, and those who harbor them."
-- President Bush, 9/11/01

VERSUS

"When you go to the question of dealing with sanctuaries in sovereign states, you're dealing with a problem of our sense of international obligation, fair play."
-- CIA Director Porter Goss, 6/19/05, on searching for Osama bin Laden in Pakistan

Oh and By the way...

Pakistan has weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan has bought them from and sold them to terrorist states. Pakistan has close ties with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Pakistan has given al Qaeda and the Taliban weapons and training, and financial and military support. Pakistan is most likely harboring high ranking al Qaeda officials. And Pakistan is admittedly the greatest nuclear proliferator in the history of the world.

[sarcasm on]
A great ally and beacon of freedom's light, we wouldn't possibly want to offend.
[sarcasm off]

Support is Not Yellow Ribbons

Some people think we should show our support for our troops in Iraq by putting yellow ribbons on our vehicles. It's the least we can do. And I mean that. By definition it is the very least someone can do.

This war is about oil more than anything else and there is nothing more foolish than someone driving around in an SUV getting 10 MPG with an American flag on one side and a yellow ribbon on the other. It's the equivalent of a whore wearing a rosary.

There are much better actions we could take to show our support of our brave troops and to help get them all home safely.

We could all write letters to our elected officials stating that we have had enough of our valiant women and men getting killed fighting an unjust war.

We could participate in demonstrations saying, "Bring our boys and girls back home now.

We could let our President and his oil baron cronies know that he is killing our service people, our sons and daughters, our wives and husbands, our fathers and mothers, in a war that we know was based on faulty and intentionally misleading information, and that we want that war stopped. That would be the best way we could all show our support for our troops.

Perjury Can Now Be Proved In Plame Incident

Time magazine reporter Matthew Cooper agreed Wednesday to testify about his sources in a government leak of a CIA agent's identity, a dramatic about-face which came as he faced going to jail.

"I am prepared to testify. I will comply" with the court's order, Cooper told U.S. District Judge Thomas Hogan.

With Novak ratting out his sources to the prosecuter it is already known who the two leakers were (which is also why Novak wasn't twisting in the wind like Cooper & Miller) but it is going to be next to impossible to prove that the Intelligence Identities Protection Act was violated by ANYONE because they'd somehow have to prove the alleged violators knew Plame was an undercover CIA agent at the time they disclosed information on Plame. Not gonna happen in a million years. With Cooper giving up his sources there is now a possibility they can prove perjury (need 2 witnesses). Novak is one witness and Cooper is the other. Proving perjury is much easier than proving the Intelligence Identities Protection Act was violated but was impossible without Cooper's cooperation.

This is HUGE. Perjury can now be PROVED. With Novak and Cooper testifying, the source of the information CAN be charged with perjury. Someone may actually do time for outing PLAME now.

The US Needs an Iraq Exit Strategy

"Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is."
--Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)

"If we are going to commit American troops, we must be certain they have a clear mission, an achievable goal and an exit strategy."
--Karen Hughes, speaking on behalf of George W Bush

I couldn't agree more. So what's the hold up Mr. Bush?

One question I hear often about Iraq is: "Should the US send more troops?"

I've been saying for sometime without a timetable with benchmarks and approximate dates the mission in Iraq is doomed to failure. (Whatever that mission is. No one seems to know what the mission is anymore.) Without an exit strategy and milestone-goals to achieve that exit strategy suggesting more troops is a waste. If more troops will allow the US to reduce the violence, turn over the country and security duties to Iraqis, and allow a complete pullout of US troops by lets say January 2006 then OK but let's see the exit strategy.

Unless you have well understood goals and objectives that you can hold people to, you'll never get anything done. We need firm targets and timelines in Iraq to have any chance of success there.

Asking for the number of troops to be increased, without a timemarker-plan to eventually decrease troops is a waste in my opinion. A policy of writing blank checks and essentially throwing money in a hole with NO END IN SIGHT is something I can not support. Pulling out immediately is folly but staying without any real plan or goal date as to when to leave is worse in my opinion. The longer we stay and there is no estimate date for complete (or mostly complete) pullout the more public support for this war will erode. We saw it during Vietnam and we're seeing it now in Iraq.

Moral Leadership

We were told it was necessary to invade Iraq because they had WMDs (including nuclear weapons) and that Iraq posed an imminent threat to the US and it's allies. That was a lie. Bush has manufactured scores of excuses to justify a war that was based on bad intelligence at best and outright lies at worst. Moral leadership (something Dubya knows nothing about) should consist of the truth and tough choices based on facts backed up by evidence. It is not moral to lie to the American people, send them to war and then change the reason we went in the first place.